A New Kind of Thinking

Six months after winning the Superbowl, they stared the season by beating the New Orleans Saints. After that? They went on to win six straight, and pushed their record to 7-0 with an up and coming show down with a Pro-Bowl QB. If the Colts could beat that QB, they’d prove to the nation that they are worthy of doing something that has not been done since the 2004 New England Patriots won Superbowl XXXIX… repeat as Superbowl Champions. Think I’m talking about this year’s Green Bay Packers? Try the 2007 Indianapolis Colts, who during their 7 game win streak beat teams that were a combined 27-24, as well as beating 3 future playoff teams. The Packers? They’ve beaten teams with a combined record of 20-30 at this point, and the only teams that could possibly be playoff teams: the Bears and Falcons. Clearly, the national media (“cough” “cough” ESPN) has extravagated how dominate the Green Bay Packer have been and failed to realize that the Packers are not the best team in the NFL.

To put things into a little better perspective, the New England Patriots have a 5-2 record against teams with a combined record of 26-24. In fact, San Francisco (6-1) has played against teams with a 26-24 record, Philadelphia (3-4) against a combined 27-22, and even Detroit (6-2) has won against a combined record of 29-28. Clearly, these teams are playing a tougher strength of schedule and still have winning records or at least close to a winning record. But really, what do all these numbers mean? For starters, it cleans up the ambiguity and gives us a more defined strength of schedule that we can use to better judge teams. For instance, the Chicago Bears travel to Philadelphia on Monday to play the Eagles. Looking at their records, the Bears are 4-3 and currently sitting at third place in the NFC North. The Eagles are 3-4 and in second place in the NFC East. Both are on a two game win streak after a shaking start to their seasons. Now, taking a closer look at their current strength of schedule percentage, the Eagles have played opponents with a combined record of 27-22 (a 54% win percentage). The Bears opponents are 30-23 or a 57% win percentage. Obviously, these numbers are too close to determine a winner but they show us that these two teams are a quality win, and you can be sure that the winner will more than likely preparing for the playoffs.

Still not sold? How about a more eye opening case. Now, I should warn you… I’m a pretty big Pats fan. A passion that can almost be unhealthy. So, let’s look at the New York Giants (5-2) vs. the New England Patriots (5-2) this week. First glance, they look to be evenly matched, both being in first place in their respective divisions. If you were to compare the Bears-Eagles game to this one, you’d probably say this will be the closer game. Well my friend, you might be surprised. The QBs: Tom Brady (104.4 QBRat. 2361 yards 18TD and 8INTs) vs. Manning (102.1 QBRat. 2127 yards 13TD and 5INTs). New England is 2^nd in passing yards; New York is 4^th in passing yards. In defense… well New York has nothing to compete with, but Tom Brady has won 31 consecutive regular season home games. So, who has the advantage? Well, looking at their opponents combined records: NE’s 26-24 (52% win percentage) and NYG… 15-34 (31% win percentage). A 31% win percentage!! When the Giants won the Superbowl in 2007, at week 8 their opponents had a combined record of 23-35 (40%). Not only do I expect the Patriots to win, but they should win by two touchdowns.

Now I can see you’re curious on this subject of looking at opponents win percentages. Luckily for you, I’ve gone back to the 2006 Indianapolis Colts to see if the Green Bay Packers are on track to make it back to the Superbowl, fittingly in Indianapolis. Since 2006, Superbowl champions have faced opponents by week 8 with combined win percentage of: (2006 Colts) 48%, (2007 Giants) 40%, (2008 Steelers) 46%, (2009 Saints) 48%, and (2010 Packers) 44%. Think it was a complete shocker the Giants upset the New England Patriots in Superbowl XLII? By week 8 the Giants and Patriot’s opponents had a 40% combined win percentage. Here’s a look at some current team’s opponents combined win percentage:

Green Bay: 40%

New England: 52%

Pittsburgh: 41%

Baltimore: 44%

New York G: 31%

San Francisco: 52%

Philadelphia: 54%

Chicago: 57%

Buffalo: 59%

Detroit: 51%

New York J: 46%

Of course, this doesn’t give us any clear indication on who will win the Superbowl. The average of the past 5 Superbowl winner’s opponent win percentage (by week 8) is 45.2%, but how much that tells us is suspect. The losers of those past 5 Superbowls have numbers like: (2006 Bears) 34% (2007 Patriots) 40%, (2008 Cardinals) 57%, (2009 Colts) 34%, (2010 Steelers) 61%. Their average is also 45.2%. The past 5 winners average 45.2% and the losers average 45.2%. It is also interesting to note that by looking at these percentages, the teams with the highest percent are 3-2 in the Superbowl (since Superbowl XLII is a tie I’ll give the advantage to the Giants). Who knows what these numbers mean, (I would eventually like to go back even farther and see if this data could be clearer) but clearly, looking back at the current teams playing today, the Superbowl participants are not always the best teams by week 8. The last 8 games are just as important, if not more important than the first 8.

Getting back to the original point of this article, we can now see that the Packers are not necessarily the top team in the NFL. In fact, the Buffalo Bills have faced the strongest schedule resulting in them being 5-2 and in first place in the AFC East. However, I don’t expect the Bills to go to the Superbowl, let alone win it all. If I had to wager a guess at this point, judging from the numbers of past Superbowl participants, I’d say the matchup could end up being Baltimore vs. Philadelphia (Someone in Philly gotta win I guess) In the end, people have tried to predict the future since we realized the concept of time. Who knows if this method will help at all. But you can be sure of one thing, the reason we love the NFL is for its unpredictability… and we’d have it no other way.

One Loss

One loss is all it takes. One loss can end a season. All it requires is one loss to crush the hopes and dreams of an entire fan base. After their crushing loss to the Auburn Tigers, the University of South Carolina Gamecocks are in disarray. They have been plagued by a struggling quarterback, who has yet to throw two touchdowns in one game and is averaging just under two interceptions a game. The season started out with jubilation, the Gamecocks were ranked 12^th in the nation, but now fans have given up on what was supposed to be a promising season. Shocking, seeing that this is only one loss and the fact that the Gamecocks are still tied for first place in the SEC east. Sure, the Auburn loss stings but now isn’t the time to give up. Many teams have gone on to lose one game (even two) and end the season with a National Championship. My fellow fans, the season has only just begun.

It was just past noon, the 4^th ranked Florida Gators took the field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with a 3-0 record having just beaten the Tennessee Volunteers at Tennessee. Their opponent, the 2-2 Ole Miss Rebels, coming in having just lost to the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Gators were stacked with talent: QB Tim Tebow, WR Percy Harvin, LB Brandon Spikes, DL duo Carlos Dunlap and Jermaine Cunningham, and CB Joe Haden. It was a relative easy victory for Florida, or that’s what everyone expected. With the Rebels up 31-30, the Gators went for a fourth down conversion with 48 seconds left in the 4^th quarter… and the rest is history. Florida went on to lose to Ole Miss, and in the postgame press conference the nation received a guarantee form Tim Tebow that eventually ended with his second National Championship. One loss didn’t end the season for the Gators, they never gave up.

2007 started out with huge expectations for the LSU Tigers, being ranked 2^nd in the nation. By October 13^th the Tigers were the number one ranked team heading into Commonwealth Stadium to play the 18^th ranked Kentucky Wildcats. With a 13 point lead in the third quarter, it seemed LSU was going to continue their march to the Superdome. Kentucky had other plans, coming back to tie the game at the end of regulation. It took three overtimes for Kentucky to hold LSU to no score, as they won with a touchdown. LSU fell to 5^th in the nation, but stayed strong as the won four straight games and gained back their number one ranking. With the SEC west clinched, LSU entered their last game of the season, before the SEC Championship, to play rival Arkansas and their three head monster RB position (Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis). The game was close from the start, and once again, the game was tied at the end of regulation. It took three overtimes once more to take down LSU (and a dicey move by Arkansas to go for the two point conversion for the win). This time LSU fell to 7^th and severely crippled their chances to play in the BCS National Championship game. However, like Florida, LSU took it one game at a time becoming the first team to play in the National Championship game with two losses.

Now, with one loss the Gamecocks seem disheartened. Yet, looking at the schedule, they are in a great position to get back up into the top 10. On Saturday, the Gamecocks play the 2-3 Kentucky Wildcats who are 0-2 in conference play. Next, they have three straight road games against Mississippi State, Tennessee, and the currently 10^th ranked Arkansas Razorbacks. If South Carolina can get through those four games, and beat (hopefully a still ranked) Arkansas team, they could be in the top 10 coming home to play the Florida Gators. After The Citadel game, the Gamecocks will take on the Clemson Tigers (who are currently ranked 8^th), in what could turn out to be the biggest game the two teams have ever played against one another (in 1987 Carolina was ranked 12^th and Clemson 8^th)… The Battle of the Palmetto State could determine a national champion. Being in the SEC, and possibly playing two top 10 ranked teams, ladies and gentlemen the season is nowhere close to being over.

Sources:

http://espn.go.com/

http://www.gamecocksonline.com/

http://www.gatorzone.com/

http://www.lsusports.net/

Quarterback Quagmire

Coach Steve Spurrier announced Monday night that Quarterback Connor Shaw would be the University of South Carolina’s starting quarterback, putting an end (at least to this point) the Stephan Garcia era. This move comes after back to back games where Garcia looked unable to lead his offense, throwing for 228 yards 1 TD and 4 INTs against Vanderbilt and then throwing for 160 yards 1 TD and 2 INTs with a completion percentage of 39%. Even when looking at Garcia’s season stats (4 TDs 9 INTs and a 52% completion percentage) it is abundantly clear that Garcia has regressed from his 2010 season, where he threw for over 3,000 yards. Now it is up to relative unknown Connor Shaw to lead the Gamecocks to a place they have never been to before, and a place that Gamecocks fans are absolutely determined to get to: The BCS National Championship.

Shaw must take control of a football team that has the highest expectations of any other South Carolina Gamecock team that has ever taken the field. During the preseason, the Gamecocks were ranked by the 12^th team in the country by both the Associated Press and the USA Today/Coaches Poll. On top of that, Sports Illustrated ranked them the 7^th team in the nation with the title “Best Gamecocks Team Ever.” When you have All-Americans Alshon Jeffery and Marcus Lattimore, as well as the number one recruit Jadeveon Clowney, expectations are going to run wild. Fast-forward to today, THE SKY IS FALLING!!! The Gamecocks haven’t blown their competition out of the water, the Florida Gators look like a more complete team, Connor Shaw looked horrible against Eastern Carolina, and hated rival Clemson is the 8^th team in the nation when they were supposed to be the ones that sucked. How can this 4-1 team be the “Best Gamecocks Team Ever” when they’re not even better than teams in their own state? Simply because reports have been grossly exaggerated.

Looking at the four games the Gamecocks have played, one can see that the national media (cough cough ESPN) haven’t really taken the time to examine the Gamecocks season. It’s much easier to look at the final score and report that, less time and energy. For example ECU, where Spurrier created a controversy two days before the game by naming Connor Shaw the starter for the first quarter. Everyone knew Garcia was in the doghouse, but this caught everyone off guard as seen in the schools newspaper’s (The Daily Gamecock) headlines “SHAWKER,” and Assistant Sports Editor Ryan Velasquez writing, “…Gamecock Nation in a state of shock after the announcement that veteran Stephen Garcia would not start against the Pirates.” Unfortunately, Shaw and his offense had the case of the butterfingers, fumbling the ball 3 times. At that point fans lost all hope in Shaw; he is of course responsible for freak fumbles by Marcus Lattimore and Stephon Gilmore, and welcomed back Stephan Garcia as he ran in a 32 yard TD. Thing is, a QB’s got to be able to pass, not just run.

Against Georgia, not only did the offense struggle but the defense “couldn’t stop a nose bleed.” Now, actually looking at why the defense was so porous instead of just examining the stat sheet one can see that the Gamecocks secondary was playing hurt. Freshman cornerback Victor Hampton and safety Brison Williams did not play against Georgia. On top of that, cornerback Akeem Auguste played with a foot injury. Georgia QB Aaron Murray passed for 248 yards and 4 TDs… in the past 3 games the Gamecocks have given up barely over 200 yards passing. South Carolina newspaper, The Post and Courier, says that after the Georgia game, and with the addition of Hampton and Williams, the Gamecocks have transitioned to more of a man to man defense. Along with the improved secondary, the defensive front seven have proven they can get to the QB with 13 sacks according to Gamecocksonline. Clearly, the Gamecocks have shown they are more than capable on defense to play any SEC opponent.

Finally, we can get to the man of the hour: Connor Shaw. It would appear that fans set their expectations for the QB position to high. Sure Garcia threw for over 3,000 yards, but fans have to realize that Garcia didn’t get to practice with the team that much during the offseason; he was suspended in April and held out of team practices till Memorial Day. He wasn’t even fully reinstated till August. Instead of practicing with the team, throwing passes to Alshon, he was focused on getting his life back together (rightfully so). Meanwhile, Connor Shaw has been taking all the first team reps. Sure, Garcia looked better against ECU, but he couldn’t pass the ball and the only plays he made were with his legs. I’ve never played collegiate football, or high school football for that matter, but it would seem to me that if you haven’t been practicing getting your mechanics down you’d resort to your natural athleticism. I believe this is exactly what has happened, Garcia hasn’t had the usual reps he’s use to, and unable to accurately throw the ball due to poor mechanics and a lack of timing, Garcia’s taking longer to read the defense and is using his legs to bail him out. That won’t work in the SEC if you can’t throw, as seen by Lattimore’s increasingly diminishing rushing stats.

Now a University turns to sophomore QB Connor Shaw from Flowery Branch, Georgia to right the ship. A kid who is known as a “gym-rat” by the coaching staff has been given the opportunity to become the face of a team pursuing a National Championship. With a defense much improved from last year, a Heisman candidate at RB, and an apparent top 10 NFL draft pick WR, Connor Shaw must give this team the leadership it has lacked these past 5 games. All that he must do to succeed is manage the offense, don’t turn the ball over and pound the rock. Good luck Connor Shaw, one game at a time.

*Stats from ESPN.com