Six months after winning the Superbowl, they stared the season by beating the New Orleans Saints. After that? They went on to win six straight, and pushed their record to 7-0 with an up and coming show down with a Pro-Bowl QB. If the Colts could beat that QB, they’d prove to the nation that they are worthy of doing something that has not been done since the 2004 New England Patriots won Superbowl XXXIX… repeat as Superbowl Champions. Think I’m talking about this year’s Green Bay Packers? Try the 2007 Indianapolis Colts, who during their 7 game win streak beat teams that were a combined 27-24, as well as beating 3 future playoff teams. The Packers? They’ve beaten teams with a combined record of 20-30 at this point, and the only teams that could possibly be playoff teams: the Bears and Falcons. Clearly, the national media (“cough” “cough” ESPN) has extravagated how dominate the Green Bay Packer have been and failed to realize that the Packers are not the best team in the NFL.
To put things into a little better perspective, the New England Patriots have a 5-2 record against teams with a combined record of 26-24. In fact, San Francisco (6-1) has played against teams with a 26-24 record, Philadelphia (3-4) against a combined 27-22, and even Detroit (6-2) has won against a combined record of 29-28. Clearly, these teams are playing a tougher strength of schedule and still have winning records or at least close to a winning record. But really, what do all these numbers mean? For starters, it cleans up the ambiguity and gives us a more defined strength of schedule that we can use to better judge teams. For instance, the Chicago Bears travel to Philadelphia on Monday to play the Eagles. Looking at their records, the Bears are 4-3 and currently sitting at third place in the NFC North. The Eagles are 3-4 and in second place in the NFC East. Both are on a two game win streak after a shaking start to their seasons. Now, taking a closer look at their current strength of schedule percentage, the Eagles have played opponents with a combined record of 27-22 (a 54% win percentage). The Bears opponents are 30-23 or a 57% win percentage. Obviously, these numbers are too close to determine a winner but they show us that these two teams are a quality win, and you can be sure that the winner will more than likely preparing for the playoffs.
Still not sold? How about a more eye opening case. Now, I should warn you… I’m a pretty big Pats fan. A passion that can almost be unhealthy. So, let’s look at the New York Giants (5-2) vs. the New England Patriots (5-2) this week. First glance, they look to be evenly matched, both being in first place in their respective divisions. If you were to compare the Bears-Eagles game to this one, you’d probably say this will be the closer game. Well my friend, you might be surprised. The QBs: Tom Brady (104.4 QBRat. 2361 yards 18TD and 8INTs) vs. Manning (102.1 QBRat. 2127 yards 13TD and 5INTs). New England is 2nd in passing yards; New York is 4th in passing yards. In defense… well New York has nothing to compete with, but Tom Brady has won 31 consecutive regular season home games. So, who has the advantage? Well, looking at their opponents combined records: NE’s 26-24 (52% win percentage) and NYG… 15-34 (31% win percentage). A 31% win percentage!! When the Giants won the Superbowl in 2007, at week 8 their opponents had a combined record of 23-35 (40%). Not only do I expect the Patriots to win, but they should win by two touchdowns.
Now I can see you’re curious on this subject of looking at opponents win percentages. Luckily for you, I’ve gone back to the 2006 Indianapolis Colts to see if the Green Bay Packers are on track to make it back to the Superbowl, fittingly in Indianapolis. Since 2006, Superbowl champions have faced opponents by week 8 with combined win percentage of: (2006 Colts) 48%, (2007 Giants) 40%, (2008 Steelers) 46%, (2009 Saints) 48%, and (2010 Packers) 44%. Think it was a complete shocker the Giants upset the New England Patriots in Superbowl XLII? By week 8 the Giants and Patriot’s opponents had a 40% combined win percentage. Here’s a look at some current team’s opponents combined win percentage:
Green Bay: 40%
New England: 52%
Pittsburgh: 41%
Baltimore: 44%
New York G: 31%
San Francisco: 52%
Philadelphia: 54%
Chicago: 57%
Buffalo: 59%
Detroit: 51%
New York J: 46%
Of course, this doesn’t give us any clear indication on who will win the Superbowl. The average of the past 5 Superbowl winner’s opponent win percentage (by week 8) is 45.2%, but how much that tells us is suspect. The losers of those past 5 Superbowls have numbers like: (2006 Bears) 34% (2007 Patriots) 40%, (2008 Cardinals) 57%, (2009 Colts) 34%, (2010 Steelers) 61%. Their average is also 45.2%. The past 5 winners average 45.2% and the losers average 45.2%. It is also interesting to note that by looking at these percentages, the teams with the highest percent are 3-2 in the Superbowl (since Superbowl XLII is a tie I’ll give the advantage to the Giants). Who knows what these numbers mean, (I would eventually like to go back even farther and see if this data could be clearer) but clearly, looking back at the current teams playing today, the Superbowl participants are not always the best teams by week 8. The last 8 games are just as important, if not more important than the first 8.
Getting back to the original point of this article, we can now see that the Packers are not necessarily the top team in the NFL. In fact, the Buffalo Bills have faced the strongest schedule resulting in them being 5-2 and in first place in the AFC East. However, I don’t expect the Bills to go to the Superbowl, let alone win it all. If I had to wager a guess at this point, judging from the numbers of past Superbowl participants, I’d say the matchup could end up being Baltimore vs. Philadelphia (Someone in Philly gotta win I guess) In the end, people have tried to predict the future since we realized the concept of time. Who knows if this method will help at all. But you can be sure of one thing, the reason we love the NFL is for its unpredictability… and we’d have it no other way.
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